Quantum Computing Threat Timeline: When RSA 2048 May Be Broken

• By JayKay Sun
• 22 Jun, 2025
• 16 Comments

Organizations are scrambling to answer a single question: quantum computing threat - when will it turn current encryption into an open diary? The answer lives in a rapidly evolving timeline that blends expert probability estimates, government mandates, and hard‑wired hardware breakthroughs. Below you’ll find the latest numbers, the regulatory clocks ticking in the background, and a practical to‑do list for anyone responsible for protecting data today.

TL;DR - Quick Takeaways

• Global Risk Institute (GRI) puts a 17‑34% chance of a CRQC breaking RSA‑2048 by 2034; that jumps to ~79% by 2044.
• U.S. federal mandates require full post‑quantum migration by 2035 (NSM‑10) and as early as 2030 for some agencies (DHS).
• Technical milestones - error‑corrected logical qubits and quantum volume growth suggest a plausible break point between 2035‑2040.
• More than half of surveyed enterprises are already measuring exposure; 30% are actively piloting PQC.
• Immediate actions: inventory crypto assets, start pilot migrations using NIST‑approved algorithms, and align with upcoming compliance dates.

How the Timeline Is Built - Sources and Methodology

Three pillars shape the current timeline:

1. Expert probability models (e.g., the Global Risk Institute a research group that aggregates forecasts from quantum physicists, cryptographers, and industry leaders 2024 report).
2. Governmental deadline frameworks (e.g., National Security Memorandum 10 (NSM‑10) mandates full post‑quantum migration for federal systems by 2035).
3. Technical trajectory assessments (e.g., MITRE the defense agency that publishes annual quantum readiness forecasts 2025 evaluation).

Each source uses a different lens - probability, policy, or hardware progress - but they converge on a 5‑15‑year window for a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer (CRQC) a quantum system large enough to run Shor's algorithm against RSA‑2048 within 24hours. By aggregating these views, we get a composite timeline that’s both realistic and actionable.

Probability Milestones - When Might RSA‑2048 Fall?

Note that probabilities are not linear - they reflect exponential hardware improvements observed over the past decade. The most aggressive expert surveys (e.g., SANS 2025) argue that a break point could appear as early as 2029 if error‑correction yields reach the logical‑qubit threshold faster than projected.

Regulatory Deadlines - What the Law Is Saying

Governments have stopped waiting for “the worst‑case scenario” and are imposing concrete dates:

• National Security Memorandum 10 (NSM‑10) - all federal systems must be quantum‑safe by 2035.
• Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requires agencies to complete migration by 2030 - the most aggressive U.S. timeline.
• Commercial National Security Algorithm Suite 2.0 (CNSA2.0) declares PQC preferred immediately (2025) and mandatory for selected workloads between 2030‑2033.
• European Union’s Quantum‑Ready directive (draft 2025) targets full compliance for critical infrastructure by the end of 2032.

These mandates assume a realistic risk horizon of 5‑15 years, meaning most enterprises must start migration now rather than waiting for the “final” quantum computer.

Technical Progress - Quantum Hardware Milestones

Two technical trends are reshaping the timeline:

1. Error‑Correction Breakthroughs - In 2024, researchers demonstrated a logical qubit with error rates below 0.1% using surface‑code techniques. That level of suppression is the missing piece for scaling to the ~1,000 logical qubits needed for RSA‑2048 attacks.
2. Quantum Volume Growth - The industry metric now sits above 1,000 for leading platforms (IBM, Google, Rigetti). Higher volume directly translates to more reliable multi‑gate circuits, a prerequisite for Shor’s algorithm.

When you combine these advances with accelerating chip‑fabrication pipelines (silicon‑photonic integration, cryogenic control electronics), the traditional linear projection used by MITRE (2025) shifts toward an exponential curve. That’s why the GRI report upgraded the 2034 probability range from 5-15% (2022) to 17-34% (2024).

Industry Readiness - How Companies Are Responding

Survey data tells a clear story:

• Deloitte Global Future of Cyber survey found 52% of firms are currently measuring quantum exposure.
• 30% have begun pilot projects with NIST‑approved algorithms such as CRYSTALS‑KYBER (key‑encapsulation) and CRYSTALS‑DILITHIUM (digital signatures).
• Financial institutions report universal awareness of the threat - executives cite the 2024 NIST PQC standards as the primary decision catalyst.

That readiness varies by sector. Critical‑infrastructure owners tend to align with DHS deadlines, while SaaS providers often opt for a phased approach, swapping out only high‑value APIs first.

What You Should Do Right Now - Action Checklist

Regardless of industry, the following steps keep you ahead of the curve:

1. Map every cryptographic asset. Identify where RSA‑2048, ECC, or AES are used - in transit, at rest, or within digital signatures.
2. Prioritize data based on shelf‑life. Records with a 10‑year retention window (e.g., credit‑card data) are high‑risk for “harvest‑now, decrypt‑later” attacks.
3. Run a risk‑scoring model. Plug in GRI probability curves to estimate exposure for each asset class.
4. Start pilot migrations. Deploy NIST‑approved PQC (CRYSTALS‑KYBER, NTRU, SPHINCS+) on non‑critical services.
5. Engage compliance owners. Align your roadmap with NSM‑10, DHS, and EU deadlines to avoid regulatory penalties.
6. Monitor hardware milestones. Track logical‑qubit counts, error‑correction thresholds, and quantum‑volume reports from major providers.
7. Plan for hybrid cryptography. Until PQC is ubiquitous, use layered approaches - e.g., RSA‑2048 + 256‑bit AES + PQC‑enabled key exchange.

By treating quantum readiness as a continuous risk program instead of a one‑off project, you’ll avoid costly re‑architectures when the next breakthrough hits.

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